January-February 2022, China's total social logistics 51.8 trillion yuan, calculated on the basis of comparable prices, an increase of 7.2%, the total social logistics growth rate continued the uptrend since the fourth quarter of last year, while significantly higher than the level of 2019 before the epidemic, showing that logistics demand as a whole is still in the uptrend channel, and the logistics operation is running smoothly in the beginning.
From a structural point of view, the internal view of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption policy effects continue to appear, industrial and consumer logistics demand to maintain faster growth; external view of the global economic cycle has not yet returned to the normal level, import logistics demand continued to fall.
Demand for industrial logistics grows faster as new momentum continues to strengthen
Enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner after the holiday, and industrial logistics demand maintained rapid growth. in January-February, total industrial logistics grew by 7.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.4 percentage points compared with the two-year average growth rate in 2020-2021.
From a structural point of view, new kinetic energy continues to develop, and the supporting role of industrial logistics demand has been strengthened. High-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry continue to grow faster, 1-2 months, high-tech manufacturing industry, equipment manufacturing industry logistics total year-on-year growth of 14.4%, 9.6%, the growth rate in December last year were accelerated by 2.3, 3.4 percentage points.
From the industry point of view, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, instrumentation manufacturing industry have achieved double-digit growth, the growth rate have accelerated. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry year-on-year growth of 7.2%, accelerated by 4.4 percentage points in December last year, especially new energy vehicle production increased by 150.5% year-on-year, in the previous year doubled on the basis of continued high-speed growth.
People's consumption and logistics demand recovery accelerated by the new industry continues to make an impact
In January-February, driven by online promotions such as the "Online New Year Festival", logistics demand for consumer goods manufacturing accelerated its recovery on the production side, while logistics demand for e-commerce and online shopping on the sales side continued to grow. From the production side, the consumer goods manufacturing industry to speed up the recovery of the consumer goods manufacturing industry logistics demand in January-February growth of 9.7% year-on-year, compared with the 2020-2021 two-year average growth rate accelerated by 5.2 percentage points.
From the point of view of the sales side, the role of the new industry boost is still obvious, in January-February, the unit and residents of the total logistics of goods increased by 10.5% year-on-year; of which, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year-on-year, the e-commerce logistics index shows that the volume of e-commerce logistics in the first two months of the year-on-year growth rate of more than 25%, and the growth of the volume of rural business is also close to 25%, to maintain the fast-growing trend.
Import prices increase and volume fall Logistics demand continues to fall back
Since the fourth quarter of last year, international commodity prices have continued to rise, with some impact on China's related imports. Data show that in January-February, the flow of imports fell by 3.5 per cent year-on-year, a decline for five consecutive months. However, we should also see that since this year, the rate of decline in imported goods flow has narrowed, with the future of China's economy and supply chain of the gradual recovery, the scale of imports will also be expanded.
From the perspective of import structure, commodities by the sharp rise in prices and other factors, crude oil, coal and lignite, steel imports have declined, the cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.9%, 14.0%, 7.9%; agricultural products in the import demand for meat to maintain a downward trend, a year-on-year decline of 33%.
Logistics Market Scale Expansion Industry Accelerates Consolidation
The logistics market scale continues to expand, and industry consolidation is accelerating.2021 Since 2021, the market scale of the logistics industry has continued to expand, and the growth rate of the total revenue of the logistics industry has maintained a relatively high level.In January-February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 9.7%, which was faster than the level in 2019 before the epidemic.
Along with the development and growth of new kinetic energy, the structure of logistics demand continues to change, putting forward higher requirements for logistics services, especially since the epidemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry has been significantly accelerated, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. China's logistics head 50 enterprises revenue share rose to the highest level in recent years, the overall concentration of the industry steadily increased, segmented areas such as express express leading enterprises through mergers and acquisitions and other ways to further promote industry concentration. According to the data of the State Post Bureau, the brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel services in January-February was 85.3, which was substantially higher than that of the whole year of 2021 and the same period.
Transportation business grew faster, and logistics companies operated more efficiently. In terms of physical volume, the total social freight volume in February increased by 15.5% year-on-year, of which the road freight volume increased by 21.1%. From the business point of view, the total business index rose in February instead of falling, the index rose 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 51.2%. since February in the resumption of production and other factors, driven by the physical volume of the logistics industry and the business volume of the enterprise to maintain good momentum, while the logistics to maintain a more efficient operation efficiency. in February the logistics industry boom index in the capital turnover index and the index of equipment utilization index rose Both the capital turnover index and the equipment utilization index in the Logistics Industry Prosperity Index rose by 0.1 percentage points from a year earlier, remaining above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting the initiative of enterprises to improve the efficiency of capital utilization and enhance the operating efficiency of logistics equipment, which played a certain role in regulating the tight balance between supply and demand in the first two months of the year.
From a comprehensive point of view, the first two months of this year, the macro-economic recovery trend continues, logistics demand scale growth rate to maintain a good level. From the market demand and expectations, the logistics industry boom index of new orders index and business activity expectations index were 50.2% and 59.7%, are higher than the previous month, of which the business activity expectations index for two consecutive months running in the high boom range, indicating that logistics enterprises on the development of the industry is expected to be good.
However, we should also see that since March unstable, uncertainty factors increase, logistics industry to protect the industrial chain, supply chain stability has increased the difficulty.
From the point of view of the external environment, the impact of the epidemic in some areas is still continuing, the various industries, the level of development of various regions is not balanced. At the same time, the geopolitical conflict continues, may bring the European direction of cross-border logistics channel is not smooth, capacity constraints, rising freight rates, supply chain impact of the key commodities to increase the pressure to maintain supply and price stability, the need to track and analyze, pay close attention.
From the point of view of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics enterprises tend to rise, the upward pressure of raw materials and labor costs has increased, the overall recovery of the industry needs to be further solid foundation:
First, the price of logistics services and cost linkage is weak. Although the price of oil and other raw material costs continue to rise, but the price of logistics services did not see a significant increase in February Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in the service price index did not rise instead of falling 0.2 percentage points, highway logistics, coastal bulk freight prices fell, showing that in the context of the current homogenization of freight transport services competition, the industry's bargaining power is low, the cost of linkage with the price of logistics services, there is a certain degree of hysteresis.
Second, the industry profitability level further pressure. Focus on the survey data show that the key logistics enterprises in January-February logistics business costs increased by 17.3% year-on-year, per 100 yuan of operating income in the cost of 90.7 yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, under the influence of rising commodity prices, structural labor shortage and other factors, fuel costs, labor costs rose more than double-digit respectively. From the point of view of profitability, the key logistics enterprises in January-February loss of nearly 30%, a year-on-year increase of 2.5 percentage points, showing that the operating pressure on logistics enterprises has increased, resulting in further compression of profitability space. Overall revenue margin at about 3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, small and medium-sized micro-logistics enterprises are more obvious damage, small and micro-logistics enterprises revenue margin of less than 3%, lower than the same period of the previous year, and with large and medium-sized enterprises there is a large gap.